Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority warns of potential flooding amid warmer temperatures and rain

Residents in parts of eastern Ontario are being warned to keep an eye on local waterways as warmer temperatures and rain anticipated over the coming days could trigger an early start to the spring melt.

The Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority (MVCA) issued a flood outlook statement for the Mississippi River watershed on Thursday, March 5, 2026, noting that a stretch of milder weather combined with rainfall could lead to rising water levels in rivers and streams.

According to the conservation authority, temperatures are forecasted to climb above freezing starting this week, with daytime highs expected to reach more than 10 degrees around March 10 before dropping below zero again by March 12. Between 20 and 30 millimetres of rain is also possible during the same period, according to the statement.

While water levels are currently below normal due to limited mid-winter snowmelt and rainfall, the MVCA explained that the region’s snowpack is well above average — sitting at about 150 percent of typical levels for this time of year.

MVCA officials warn the combination of higher temperatures and rain could accelerate melting and lead to higher water levels and faster flows across the watershed, marking an early start to the annual spring melt.

The conservation authority also noted that unstable ice conditions may develop as temperatures rise, which could increase the risk of ice movement and localized ice jams.

Residents living in flood-prone areas are advised to monitor local conditions and take steps to protect their property, including ensuring sump pumps are working properly, clearing downspouts and directing them away from buildings, and securing outdoor items that could be carried away by flooding.

Additionally, residents are urged to use caution near rivers, streams and lakes as water levels rise and ice becomes unstable.

The flood outlook statement will remain in effect until March 13, or until conditions change and an update is issued.

Current water level information for the watershed is available through the conservation authority’s online monitoring system.